Forex today
- The Japanese yen continues to improve and be the strongest in the currency market, as the US dollar pair against the Japanese yen is heading downwards and is now trading at a level below 141 Japanese yen, this raises questions about the long-term trend of the pair, as it seems that the price has breached an important support level near this number .
- As for the British pound against the US dollar, it may also attract attention, as it continues to breach new levels in the long term and shows strength in the bullish trend, and at the moment, the pair is trading at the highest level in almost 15 months near $1.2900.
- Equity markets are rising on positive outlook on Chinese assets, as most of the global stock markets especially in Asia are seeing the Hang Seng increase by over 1.25% so far on the day.
- Regarding Bitcoin.. its price is still below the important reversal level at $31K, the current price action may seem to add complexity indicating that a breakout to the upside may not be likely for now.
The decline of the US dollar
A decline in the value of the US dollar was recorded during trading on Wednesday, July 13, before the release of US inflation data later in the day, as it reached its lowest level in nearly two months.
With regard to currency market trading for today, a sharp decline was recorded in the US dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, as it fell by about 0.26% to reach approximately 101.46 points.
The decline of the US dollar today, Wednesday, ahead of the release of US inflation data, is attributed to several reasons, as follows:
- American inflation
The market is anticipating the currencies and the US dollar in particular for the release of US inflation data, as there are expectations of a slowdown in the annual general inflation rate, as it is expected to record 3.1% compared to 4.0% in May.
The core inflation rate is expected to rise on a monthly basis, which is the rate that excludes energy and food costs, by an estimated rate of 0.3% compared to 0.4%.
This expectation led to the reinforcement of the downside trend in dollar trading. If the inflation rate slows down in the United States, the pressures that the US Federal Reserve faces regarding the continuation of monetary tightening and raising interest rates may fade away, and this, in turn, increases the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates. This expectation led to a decline in the value of the US dollar in trading.
- US Treasury yields
US Treasury yields witnessed a decline, which led to a decrease in the demand for the US dollar in today's trading, as the US Treasury yield for 10 years recorded a significant decline.
This decline in US bond yields reflects the decline in interest by investors in buying the US dollar, which results in strong negative effects on the movement of the dollar in the currency market.
The Japanese yen is rising strongly
The Japanese yen witnessed a rise in the European currency market on Wednesday against a group of global currencies, as it continued to achieve its gains for the fifth day in a row against the US dollar, and the Japanese yen exceeded the level of 140 yen per dollar for the first time in the last four weeks, while benefiting from expectations of the adjustment of the Japanese central bank for his controversial policy of controlling the yield curve during its meeting at the end of this month.
This comes as the 10-year US Treasury yield declined ahead of the release of key US inflation data, which may reduce inflationary pressures on the Federal Reserve.
The future of bitcoin in 2024
According to an article published by Standard Chartered Bank two days ago, the price of Bitcoin, which is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is expected to reach $120,000 at the end of 2024.
Bitcoin is also expected to reach $50,000 by the end of this year.
This forecast is much more optimistic than the previous one made in April, where the price of Bitcoin was predicted to reach around $100,000 by the end of 2024. At the time, Standard Chartered Bank indicated that the banking crisis witnessed in the markets earlier this year may push Bitcoin price to reach this level.